the Russian national currency during today’s trading on the Moscow exchange depreciates against the Euro and dollar, with the exchange rate last rose above 72 rubles.
as of 12:06 GMT U.S. currency calculations “tomorrow” has added 91 kopecks to the previous closing and reached 71,88 rubles (earlier it was increased to 72,07 rubles), while the Euro rose to 64.5 cents to 78,3450 of the ruble, according to data exchanges.
the Russian national currency is weakening following a significant drop in oil prices.
As the Director of the Academy of management Finance and investment Arseniy Dadashev, “the impact on demand for higher-yielding assets caused by news from China, where the government first revised the reduction target growth rate of annual GDP due to the pandemic coronavirus, which in the first quarter, the economy contracted by 6.8%, for the first time in several decades.”
At the same time the chief analyst of PSB Bogdan Zvarich says that “sales in the national currency will contribute to the situation on the energy market, where the nearest futures on Brent crude retreated to the area of 34.5 dollars per barrel”. “Plus, there is a decrease in demand for risk, which is expressed in weakening of currencies of developing countries”, — says the expert.
we will Remind, the head of Ministry of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov presented a briefing on the updated macroeconomic forecast, which expects the dollar to the end of this year will be around 75-76 rubles.
According to the Minister, “in the second half of the year export-import will begin to recover, at the same time as reviving the economy imports will grow a bit more, because there were physical limitations” that “will lead to a moderate weakening of the ruble”.
we also Add that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spreadeniya pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in April 2020 rose 0.1 percent against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar fell during this period by 1.6%, the Euro by 0.6%. However, for the first 4 months of the current year the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 11%, and the dollar — by 14.3%, and the Euro by 12.9%.
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