Analyst: Bank of Russia chose to fight a recession, but investors will suffer

the Bank of Russia to soften monetary policy to stimulate demand and economic growth in the country, but the interests of depositors are likely to be sacrificed. This opinion was expressed by the “Rosbalt” the head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev.

He agrees that “after a period of quarantine” was put into the fight against the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19, “businesses need cheap loans to restore the normal operating activities”.

As the analyst, may 22 the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that the level of the key rate “will be determined in such a way to provide inflation of 4%”. Now the key rate of the regulator to 5.5%, inflation in April was 3.1%, target inflation of 4%.

the Bank of Russia will consider the possibility of a rate cut by one percentage point at the meeting on June 19. “The Board of Directors will discuss this as one of the variants of changes in monetary policy,” — says Razuvaev.

In his view, “monetary policy easing to stimulate demand and economic growth in June is absolutely logical decision.” “Previously the Bank of Russia has designated the corridor for the key rate at the level of 6-7%, income of Bank deposits are required to cover inflation. However, the interests of investors, apparently, sacrificed to combat the recession”, says the review expert.

however, he believes that “additional support to the real sector and the budget should have a weak ruble, which remains a boon for exporters.”

overall, says the analyst, “the ruble is stable.” “The Russian currency in the current situation, have traditionally support the weak import demand and expectations of further growth in oil prices on world markets amid the release from quarantine. The panic subsided, plus investors turned their attentions that by the end of the first quarter of Russian non-oil exports are almost equal to raw. Probably, the trend of moderate strengthening of the Russian currency will continue in the near future. Targets at the beginning of the summer: the dollar amount to 71 rubles, and the Euro will be traded at the level of 78 rubles,” — adds Razuvaev.

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