Experts of the savings Bank slightly downgraded its forecast for average annual ruble exchange rate for the year 2020 to 70-71 rubles per U.S. dollar, from the previously expected 70.7 ruble.
At the same time, analysts of financial organizations adjusted to the expectations of the national currency in 2021 and 2022, up to 68-69 and 69-70 rubles to the dollar (versus the previously anticipated 70-70,5 rubles), respectively, according to TASS.
in addition, the savings Bank has revised the inflation forecast for the year 2020 to 3.5% expected in April to 3.7% in 2021 — up to 3.4% against 3.8 per cent earlier, in 2022 remained at the level of the target (benchmark) of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation of 4%, said “Finmarket”.
the Experts also maintained a continuing assessment of the fall of the Russian economy by the end of this year at 4.2%. Thus next year the savings Bank expects GDP growth of 3.2% (previously — plus 3.1 per cent), in 2022, an increase of 2% (unchanged).
Recall that earlier this week, the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva predicted that the Russian economy will recover to the level of 2019 only in the first quarter of 2022. “We see a recovery to the level of 2019 only somewhere in the first quarter of 2022 and the output to the trend that was seen before, somewhere by the end of 2022,” — said the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank.
prior To this, the Institute’s research and expertise on the web.Russia downgraded the assessment of the fall of the Russian GDP from 3.8% to 4.5% by the end of 2020, but without the adoption of anti-crisis measures the scale of economic contraction would be even stronger. This conclusion is contained in the July forecast of economists, the corporations, seen by RBC.
experts believe that the termination of most of the stabilization measures at the end of the current year and the restrictive effect of fiscal rules will prevent a V-shaped rebound of the economy in 2021 and will keep GDP growth in the years 2021-2024 at a level not higher than 3%.
However,enee, says the study, due to anti-crisis measures of the government of that institution VEB.Of the Russian Federation estimates a total of 3.4—3.5% of GDP, the decline in the economy in 2020 will be less than if the government did nothing: minus 4.5% versus minus 6.3 percent. The incentive of 1.8 percentage points is mainly due to the support of business revenue and secondarily of the population.
Volume three packages to support the economy announced by the government, economists VEB is estimated at 4 trillion rubles.
Analysts suggest that the bottom point of falling of the Russian economy in 2020 will be in the second quarter, when GDP will shrink by 11% in annual terms, and in General for the year real incomes of Russians will fall by 4.1%.
last Friday, the Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference that the recovery of economic activity in Russia can take more than 1.5 years. “We continued easing of monetary policy in the first place, given that there are still risks of deviation of inflation down from 4% in 2021. It is associated with a significant decline in economic activity, drop in domestic and external demand”, — said the head of the Central Bank.
it is estimated that the recovery “will take more than 1.5 years, which will have a moderating influence on price dynamics”.
At the same time, the regulator expects that the Russian economy will shrink by the end of this year by 4.5 to 5.5%, but further growth is expected at 3.5 to 4.5% in 2021 and 2.5—3.5% in 2022. As noted by the Central Bank in its press release, “the restoration of the Russian economy will be gradual, given the phased lifting of restrictive measures”. “The ongoing recovery of business activity in General remains constrained and heterogeneous across industries and regions,” admits the Bank of Russia.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful influence of two negative factorin the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin reported on the nationwide state plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will amount to about 5 trillion roubles. June 19, Putin was sent a revised draft of the national plan.