National Bureau of economic research (NBER), which traditionally reflects the change of economic cycles in the United States, officially concluded that the American economy in February 2020 has entered a recession.
It marked the end of the 128-month rally that began in June 2009 — the longest period of continuous growth of the US economy with since NBER began keeping records in 1854, according to “Finmarket”.
“the Unprecedented scale of decline in employment and production, as well as its wide coverage throughout the economy justify the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it will be shorter than previous recessions,” said in NBER.
Recall that in late March, experts of the leading investment banks surveyed by the Wall Street Journal, has drastically adjusted its forecasts and wait for the loss of millions of jobs in the U.S. in the coming months and a sharp drop of us GDP in April—June, and possibly in the third quarter of this year. So, according to the pessimistic scenario, the decline in GDP in the II quarter will be 10%, according to optimistic — 4%. While at Goldman Sachs laid to the nearest quarter, a decrease of 24% with an increase in unemployment to 9% from the current 3.5%.
a Recession that will last at least a few months, will be comparable in depth with the financial crisis of 2007-2009 or surpass it. In the worst quarter of 2008, the decline in US GDP reached 8.8% in recalculation on annual rates.
However, Bruce Kasman from JPMorgan considered the good news is that in contrast to the recession of 2007-2009, the economy may recover quickly if the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19 will stop, because fundamentally the economy is balanced.
Under the technical recession refers to the decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters, but academic economists usually look at this concept more deeply — through the prism of several indicators of a downward business cycle.
Inspyshka pneumonia caused by a coronavirus infection (COVID-2019), was formally recorded in December 2019 in the Chinese city of Wuhan. March 11, 2020, the world health organization (who) officially recognized the situation with coronavirus pandemic. To date, cases of infection were recorded in almost 200 countries and regions of the world. In General, the number of infected COVID-2019 in the world has exceeded 7.1 million people, died more than 406 thousand. The pandemic has had devastating effects on the world economy. Under the powerful kick hit many industries, including transport, tourism, hospitality, automotive, construction, retail, and entertainment.
Stories about how you tried to get help from the Russian state in terms of coronaries and what came of it, email it to COVID-19@rosbalt.ru
